The late seeding of ponds in 2020 will result in low to moderate supplies until the end of the year particularly in areas not affected by winter (Indonesia, Malaysia, southern Thailand, Andhra and Tamil Nadu states in India). However, the low season will persist from November to February in China, eastern parts of India, Viet Nam, Thailand, Myanmar, and Bangladesh. Farmed shrimp production in Asia is forecast to be 15 to 20 percent lower in 2020 than in 2019.
In China, the mid–autumn festival and the National Day holiday in October gave a big boost to the shrimp market when outdoor eating increased significantly. With COVID-19 still raging in the United States of America and Europe, many Chinese consumers have opted to travel domestically. Inventories of frozen shrimp in China have declined which will support imports in the coming months. Increased US imports during the third quarter of the year will allow for sufficient stocks for year-end consumption. Meanwhile, restaurant sales will likely slowdown in winter months. The consumption trend will be similar in Europe and in Japan with some improvement in demand expected during the Christmas/New year period.
From September 2020, ex-farm prices bottomed out for Asian and Ecuadorian shrimp. The seasonal short supplies in Asia and expected good demand from China until the 2021 Lunar New Year will lead to price increases. As China lifted bans on Ecuadorian shrimp, Chinese imports from this country will likely go up in coming months. Meanwhile the e-commerce and home delivery of shrimp in importing and producing countries has opened up new marketing and sales opportunities worldwide. This trend will continue in the long run.
Consumer demand for shrimp in Japan remained dull during the high consumption periods of April to May and also in the summer months. Even at low international prices, half-yearly imports in 2020 fell by 4 percent at nearly 90 000 tonnes compared to 93 400 tonnes recorded in 2019. The negative trend also persisted during January to August 2020 with imports falling by 3.7 percent to 128 215 tonnes.